The US dollar index finished last week near 101.8, little changed, and the 10-year Treasury yield sits just below 5.00 percent after falling more than 1 percent on Thursday, according to the weekly summary compiled by Capital Street FX. The week ahead brings a crowded US calendar.
The US schedule (GMT)
- Monday 15:00: ISM manufacturing.
- Tuesday: US midterm elections.
- Wednesday 15:00: ISM services, with the Treasury quarterly refunding the same day.
- Friday 13:30: nonfarm payrolls. Consensus runs about +55,000 to +63,000, with unemployment at 4.2 percent and average hourly earnings up 0.3 percent on the month.
Clocks in the US went back on Sunday, so New York releases now arrive an hour later in GMT terms than they did last week.
The rate backdrop
The Federal Reserve held at its last meeting with two hawkish dissents, and FXStreet puts the odds of a December hike near 80 percent, as cited in the same report. That makes Friday's labour figures and wage growth central to how that probability moves.
Background: how jobs reports move currencies and the dollar index explained. Market commentary only; not a trade recommendation.