Gold started the week under pressure, with investingLive's morning chart note describing the metal as testing $4,000 support and flirting with a break of that psychological level. The same report flagged the $3,870 region as the next area in focus if sellers take control.
The backdrop is Friday's decline: gold extended losses after positive US PMIs eased growth worries, although real yields fell, an unusual mix that shows how mixed the drivers are at present. Our weekend note covered the roughly 4% weekly drop; see the weekly recap.
Crude opened the week lower after weekend fears of US strikes on Iran proved unfounded, according to investingLive. The report gave no price level. It also noted that President Trump has said attacks could resume after the US midterms, which may keep a risk premium in prices, while talks in Tehran involving Saudi, Turkish, Pakistani and Iranian officials are being watched.
Why it matters for FX: oil moves feed through to inflation expectations and to commodity currencies such as CAD and NOK; see oil prices and the Canadian dollar.
What to watch
- Whether gold closes decisively below $4,000 or recovers it.
- Headlines from the Tehran talks.
- A heavy central bank week: RBNZ, BoC, FOMC, ECB and BoJ decisions are all due.
Round numbers like $4,000 are watched widely but are not guarantees of support. This is market commentary, not a trade recommendation.