EUR/USD was down about 0.2% near 1.1193 on Friday morning, according to Investing.com. ING's Francesco Pesole said the pair could quickly retest its 14 October low near 1.1120 if bond market turmoil persists.
French bonds remain a focus. The 10-year OAT-Bund spread closed at 174 basis points after touching 178, and the OAT-BTP spread reached 50 basis points. ING said the euro's sensitivity to France has diminished, but the link could return quickly if the OAT-Bund spread breaches roughly 200 bp. A Moody's review of France's rating was reported as due on 23 October, though the report gave no outcome at the time of writing, so check the release yourself.
ING also described EUR/CHF as the "cleanest way to play European sovereign risk," reflecting the franc's gains in the current defensive rotation. Bond and equity moves are again negatively correlated, per ING, and FX has followed that pattern.
Event days like this widen spreads and slippage; read the true cost of every FX trade before deciding whether a rating headline is worth your attention.
Market commentary for information only; not trading advice. Figures approximate, from a published report on 23 October 2026.